Though August Prom markets were busy and buzzing in anticipation of another strong Prom season in 2023, there were and are questions about the potential impact of a threatened economic downturn, and if the burst in activity we recorded for Prom 2022 was a one-time, schools-are-finally-open event.
So we decided to ask those very questions of three individuals particularly positioned in the Prom category:
Mike Denton, director, International Prom Association, and owner/founder of the Formal Approach, Jefferson City, Tennessee;
Denise Knapp, founder, Top 10 Prom and Top 10 Bridal, and owner/founder, Best Bride Prom & Tux, Ashville, North Carolina;
Caron Stover, Senior Vice President, Apparel, International Market Centers, promoters of World of Prom & Social Occasion Market Atlanta, and VOW Bridal & Formal Market Atlanta, Las Vegas. Their written answers to our questions appear below in alphabetical order.
1) How do you think worries about a potential recession will impact 2023 Prom sales?
Mike Denton:
If we look back at The Great Recession of 2008, we see prom numbers held steady and even increased slightly during the recession years then exploded immediately afterwards. Shoppers seem to focus more energy on the life stage events and less on the fringe events during times of economic difficulties. It’s also worth noting that wages have outpaced overall inflation since The Great Recession. Even though prices have soared recently, shoppers(especially teen shoppers) have more spending power than ever before.
Denise Knapp:
First, it always good to be aware of what is happening in the general economy. It is more important to know about the local economy. There is always somewhere things are tougher and somewhere things are booming. Prom and bridal tend to trail the economy, so if the economy does continue to slow, we do not expect it to have a significant impact on First quarter prom and bridal sales. Second quarter is unlikely to be impacted unless something negative more major occurs.
Caron Stover:
After a record-breaking year for World of Prom & Social Occasion we are optimistic about 2023, despite a potential recession. Wholesale sales were incredible, and prom is an important “must attend” milestone for consumers.
2) Are you optimistic, neutral, negative about Prom 2023. . . and why?
Denton:
We have an optimistic outlook for Prom 2023. Even though we still face many challenges with supply chains/logistics and additional regional public health concerns, shoppers are determined to move past the darkness of social distancing and create bright everlasting memories together. From jam-packed concerts and sporting events to overflowing restaurants and malls, people are eager to be together. Couple that with the earlier-mentioned increase in teen spending power and I think we have reason to be very optimistic.
Knapp:
We are optimistic! Stores were able to move a lot of old inventory during Covid, schools are back open, and parents want their kids back in life and back at prom.
Stover:
We are absolutely optimistic! Since recovering from the pandemic, prom has been on an upward trajectory and it’s not slowing down. Many of our prom brands at AmericasMart just recorded record-breaking years and were able to expand, proving the resilience of this industry. 2023 is set up for success and we are excited to see our buyers and brands have another prosperous year!
3) Prom 2022 was a very strong season for a variety of reasons, primarily because of the Post-Covid return to school events and Proms. . . how do you think those trends will impact Prom 2023?
Denton:
Parents and teens alike witnessed and are still experiencing the fall-out of social distancing. I don’t see a path back to the days when life stage events like prom were taken for granted. That said, I think the very pandemic that crushed 2020 serves as the building block for continuing growth in prom.
Knapp:
These are positive trends that should hold for the coming season.
Stover:
Pent-up demand for canceled and postponed social events caused a spike in the social occasion industry, and we witnessed a surge in sales across our VOW Bridal & Formal and World of Prom & Social Occasion markets as a result. In addition to the increase in consumer shopping, many operational lessons were learned during the pandemic, such as inspections on overhead and spending, and we saw retailer businesses flourish from those experiences. We anticipate those trends will continue into 2023 and beyond.
4) What changes in buying behavior do you anticipate for Prom 2023?
Denton:
Buyers will continue the cashless transaction trend and that fosters the instant gratification trend. In short, the majority of shoppers will look to buy off the rack and avoid the hassle of special orders when shopping in-store. We will see a surge of in-store shopping, but that doesn’t instantly point to increased sales. It’s more important than ever that retailers approach this shopper with a consistent brand experience across all channels. Online purchases will continue to grow, but with an effective omni-channel shopper experience, even traditional brick-and-mortar retailers will capture their fair share of online sales.
Knapp:
Stores had lower inventory when buying for this season. New inventory arriving at stores is exciting. Customers will find the latest looks and a motivated sales force.
Stover:
As we heard from our customers, teens were so thankful to be able to attend prom in 2022. High school students were not overly particular in their dress selection, and our retailers reported having to sell off old inventory to keep up with demand. In our opinion, the 2023 consumer will be more prepared and will come in with a dream dress in mind, so boutiques and storefronts can expect a more decisive approach and willingness to make the dress selection on the spot.
5) What style trends do you anticipate?
Denton:
We are experiencing some of the most exciting style trends for prom. From sequins and velvet, to feathers and lace, prom is full of glamour, fun and formal excitement. Just a teaser for 2024, the whole 90s vibe in ready-to-wear will generate energy around bubble shirts, prints and even more bling.
Knapp:
Fitted, fully beaded, jersey with heat sets, and A-lines were all strong in orders from market. It will be a beautiful selection for Customers when they are shopping.
Stover:
The 2023 Pantone Color of the Year has been announced – Viva Magenta. It is “brave and fearless, a pulsating color whose exuberance promotes joy and optimistic celebration” and we think it will be a very in-demand hue. Other buying trends that we saw at World of Prom in Atlanta included over-the-top feathers, eye-catching sequins and bold colors, puffy sleeves, high slits, tails and trains and accessorizing with gloves. We are excited to see the way these trends translate for consumers
6) What message do you recommend boutiques broadcast on social media to their teen Prom customers?
Denton:
Today’s teens are always connected and endlessly processing content. With that, they are very sensitive to a broad spectrum of social issues and have strong opinions about many of them. Teens embrace brands that are socially conscious and hold similar values to theirs. Our message must be consistent, true to our brand, personality, and many of the same values. Teens have endless choices in social media. The message must be engaging and refreshing and layer into our customers’ social-media routine without appearing intrusive.
Knapp:
At Top 10, our Members have an exciting social-media plan for Prom 2023. It’s fun to see how engaged owners are with their customers.
Stover:
Teen customers are very social-media savvy and conduct research before shopping, so they will be looking to retailers for inspiration and styling tips. This is a great opportunity for retailers to educate consumers on what to expect when they visit the store and create a sense of excitement that makes them feel like they can’t shop anywhere else. Retailers should position prom as a major milestone that should be just as fun to prepare for as it is to attend.
7) What do you think is crucial for boutiques to know about today’s Prom customer?
Denton:
Now more than ever, teens are socially awkward, even distant in some instances. (Much in part to the pandemic and device fatigue) As a retailer, we have to work harder to break through with our brand message, but with less intrusion into their daily lives. We need to become a part of their daily routine. Once we get them in-store or on-site, it’s crucial that we connect with them, gain their trust and deliver an exciting shopping experience that is flexible to who they are.
Knapp:
Today’s customers do not fit in a neat little box called “Customers”. They are more diverse and unique than ever before. Stores need to appreciate these differences and service them accordingly.
Stover:
Teens today have more tools to discover the trends, designers, colors and styles that appeal. However, today’s prom customers want the same thing as in past years – to feel beautiful and special! Prom is a timeless event that will generate the same excitement in 2023 as it always has in the past.